China Financial Daily

September 22, 2011

September food prices rose greatly, China’s September CPI is expected to rise 6.1% year on year

Filed under: Financial News — Tags: , — sherry @ 6:27 pm -0700

September food prices rose greatly, China’s September CPI is expected to rise 6.1% year on year
September 2011, food prices rose about 13%. Due to the Mid-Autumn Festival, it is expected that the China’s CPI will be increased by 6.1% year on year. Compared with little interest rate, there are great difference. So the interest rate cannot catch up the increasing CPI.

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September 2, 2011

Brokerages predict China’s CPI to be no higher than 6 pct in August

Filed under: Financial News — Tags: — sherry @ 6:50 am -0700

China’s consumer price index (CPI), a main gauge of inflation, will stay no higher than 6 percent in August on the back of more stable food prices, the Shanghai Securities News cited brokers as saying on Friday. Of the country’s four major brokers, including China International Capital Corporation (CICC), Shenyin & Wanguo Securities, Guotai Junan Securities and Essence Securities, three forecast the CPI will grow 6 percent year-on-year in August, the report said.

Essence Securities predicted the August CPI at 5.9 percent.
Food prices, which account for one third of the CPI calculation, saw moderate month-on-month declines in August mainly attributed to lower vegetable and fruit prices and stabilized pork prices, according to data calculated by Essence Securities with figures from the National Bureau of Statistics and the Ministry of Commerce.

“Pork prices are highly likely to take a downward path in the fourth quarter,” said Gao Shanwen, a chief economist with Essence Securities.

Since the average lending rate is at a high level and inflation will be eased, another interest rate hike seems unnecessary in the following months, said Guotai Junan Securities.

The CICC said the chance for the central bank to raise banks’ reserve requirement ratio (RRR) is also slight, but it does not necessarily mean policy relaxation. The government will continue a prudent monetary policy.

The country’s CPI surged to a 37-month high of 6.5 percent in July, well above the government’s target ceiling of 4 percent.

To mop up liquidity and stabilize prices, the central bank has raised benchmark interest rates three times and the RRR six times this year.

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July 12, 2011

China’s first half year GDP grew 9.6%, CPI rose by 5.4% (six months)

Filed under: Financial News — Tags: , , — Nancy @ 8:18 pm -0700

China’s first half year GDP grew 9.6%, CPI rose by 5.4% (six months)
Preliminary estimates, GDP in the first half reaches 20.4459 trillion yuan, calculated at comparable prices, an increase of 9.6%; which, in the first quarter increased 9.7%, whereas the second quarter increased 9.5%. Sub-industries, the primary industry was 1.57 trillion yuan, up 3.2 percent; the secondary industry was 10.2178 trillion yuan, up 11.0%; tertiary industry was 8.6581 trillion yuan, an increase of 9.2%. From a chain perspective, the second quarter GDP growth reaches 2.2%.

First, the overall stability of agricultural production, production of summer grain harvest. China’s summer grain output reaches 126.27 million tons, 3.12 million tons increase over the previous year, an increase of 2.5%. In the first half, livestock and poultry production is 37.22 million tons, an increase of 0.2%, pork production is 24.43 million tons, down 0.5%.

Second, industrial production grew steadily, and enterprises continue to increase. In the first half, the national-scale industrial added value up 14.3%. By Registration, state-owned and state holding enterprises increased by 10.7%; collective enterprises increased by 9.6%; holding enterprises increased by 16.1%; foreign and Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan-invested enterprises increased by 11.1%. Sub-light and heavy industries, heavy industry rose 14.7%, light industry was 13.1%. In terms of industries, 39 major industries are to grow. Sub-region, the eastern region increased by 12.4%, 17.8% growth in the central region, the western region grew 17.3%. In the first half, sales ratio of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 97.8% over the previous year increased by 0.1 percentage points. In June, large-scale industrial added value increased 15.1%, growth of 1.48%.

1-5 months, national-scale industrial enterprises realized profits of 1.9203 trillion yuan, up 27.9%. In 39 major industries, 37 industries increased profits, two industries fell. 1-5 months, the main business of industrial enterprises above designated size accounted for the cost of main business revenue was 84.7%, 0.3 percentage points higher than the first quarter. In May, the large-scale industrial enterprises the main business income margin was 6.2%.

Third, maintain a rapid growth in fixed asset investment, real estate investment and rapid growth. In the first half, investment in fixed assets (excluding farmers) 12.4567 trillion yuan, an increase of 25.6%. State-owned and state-controlled investment 4.305 trillion yuan, an increase of 14.6%. Different industries, the first industry investment grew 20.6%, secondary industry 27.1%, investment growth in the tertiary industry 24.7%. Sub-region, the eastern regional investment up 22.6%, 31.0% growth in the central region, the western region grew 29.2%. From the chain perspective, investment in fixed assets in June (excluding farmers) fell 1.04%.

In the first half, the national real estate investment 2.625 trillion yuan, an increase of 32.9%. Among them, the residential investment 1.8641 trillion yuan, an increase of 36.1%. National real estate sales 444.19 million square meters, an increase of 12.9%. Of these, 12.1 percent of residential sales area. In the first half, real estate development company funding 4.0991 trillion yuan this year, an increase of 21.6%. In June, the national real estate climate index was 101.75.

Fourth, the steady growth in sales, automotive, real estate-related merchandise sales slowdown. In the first half, total retail sales 8.5833 trillion yuan, an increase of 16.8%. Among them, enterprises above designated size (units), retail sales 3.9034 trillion yuan, an increase of 23.7%. Divided by locations of operating units, urban retail sales 7.445 trillion yuan, up 16.9%; rural retail sales 1.1383 trillion yuan, an increase of 16.2%. According to consumption patterns, food and beverage revenue 957.9 billion yuan, up 16.2%; retail sales 7.6254 trillion yuan, an increase of 16.9%. In retail, the limit above (units) retail sales 3.6108 trillion yuan, an increase of 24.2%. Among them, motor vehicles was up 15.0%, lower than a year earlier, down 22.1 percentage points; furniture was up 30.0%, down 8.5 percentage points; household appliances and audiovisual equipment rose 21.5%, down 7.3 percentage points. In June, total retail sales of social consumer goods grew 17.7%, growth of 1.38%.

Fifth, the steady growth of urban and rural incomes, rural income growth. In the first half of urban residents per capita household income 12,076 yuan. Among them, the per capita disposable income of urban residents 11,041 yuan, up 13.2 percent after deducting price factors, the actual growth of 7.6%. In the average urban household income, the nominal wage income increased 11.5% year on year and transfer income increased 9.9%, operating net income increased 31.2%, property income growth of 20.4%. Per capita cash income of rural residents 3706 yuan, up 20.4 percent after deducting price factors, the actual increase of 13.7%. Among them, the nominal wage income increased 20.1% year on year, operating income families increase of 21.0%, 7.5% growth in property income and transfer income increased 23.2%.

At present, economic development and domestic and international environment is still very complicated, unstable and uncertain factors. The next phase of macro-economic policy orientation to unswervingly adhere to and continue to ensure policy continuity, stability, continue to stabilize the general price level of the most important position on the macro-control, enhance the policy relevance, flexibility, effectiveness, and further handling to maintain stable and rapid economic development, economic restructuring, and management of the relationship between inflation expectations and increase the intensity of reform and innovation to accelerate economic restructuring and development patterns, promote sound and rapid economic development.

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