The Central Economic Work Conference held tomorrow or for the steady growth of the keynote
The Central Economic Work Conference is not as media coverage in advance prior to the convening of the meeting will be held as scheduled December 5. Some analysts expect the overall economic situation in actively good, Paul is not very urgent task of growth, “protect growth” will be the keynote or the “steady growth” as a substitute a few days ago the CPC Central Committee Political Bureau meeting also proposed a ” 5 greater emphasis on “concept.
The annual Central Economic Work Conference is the highest decision-making at the central level meeting by reviewing the pros and cons over the past year’s economic work, look to the future economic trends and identify the overall tone for the coming year’s policy plans for next year fiscal policy, monetary policy and other macro-control policies.
The economy overall tone of the Central economic conference on the most talked about things, widely expected before the economic work conference in 2010 to develop economic fundamentals will continue in 2009 content.
And since 2008 began, the overall tone is the central economic policy by a number of characters formed by the end of 2007 Central Economic Work Conference to determine the “total control, steady prices, adjusting structure, promoting balanced” 12-character principle, then as the economic situation has tremendous changes in economic fundamentals in 2008, took place four times larger changes in the beginning of the “anti-inflation, anti-overheating”, mid-year change to “to maintain growth, control inflation,” in September 2008 due to the international financial crisis, the domestic economy tone evolved into full “protect growth”, in November 2008 have been adjusted to “maintain growth, expand domestic demand.”
2009 is the continuation of the basic economic fundamentals in 2008 and made some adjustments to the contents of the entire macroeconomic adjustment along the “Bao growth, structural adjustment, expansion of domestic demand, increase people’s livelihood,” the tone to carry out, and later as the situation changes, some economists believe that should be added “to preserve employment, anti-inflation”, and so on.
For these reasons, coupled with the high-level central economic work conference, a number of occasions before the emphasis on policy continuity and stability, so economists believe the economy in 2010 will continue in 2009 the total content of the tone and make appropriate adjustments.
At that time, taking into account the upward trend in the economy stabilized and gradually increased, the overall situation in actively good, Paul is not very urgent task of the growth of the State Information Center, Fan Jianping, director of economic forecasting that “protect growth” will be “steady growth”, the tone of the substitution; , taking into account the economic growth of the structural problem is serious, “structural adjustment” is considered to be “steady growth” after another economic policy; and perceived as being included in the economic fundamentals were to expand domestic demand and promoting consumption, taking into account the central leaders repeatedly that the people’s livelihood will never be excess investment in the market to determine the people’s livelihood will also be one of the economic fundamentals in 2009; As for the issue of inflation expectations, due next year, less the probability of inflation, many economists believe that “Prevention of inflation or the management of inflation expectations” are not even will be placed in the central economic fundamentals.
However, the above forecast may all come to nothing, from the official information, whether it is nine-character principle, 12-character principle, or 16-character principle, in 2010, probably will not be mentioned, “multi-character approach may not be mentioned, even Paul would not mention growth or stable growth, but in other words to replace. “one official said that annual economic work conference held prior to the CPC Central Committee Political Bureau meeting was considered a unified economic thinking,” set the tone will be, ” “In view of the convening of the Central Economic Work Conference of the Central Political Bureau of the Conference away from just less than a week away, we believe that the policy positions of the two meetings will remain united.” Goldman Sachs Gao Hua Qiao Hong China’s macro-economist, said in the report.
In the November 27th CPC Central Committee Political Bureau, the Central Committee put forward the “five greater emphasis on” concept, that is, pay more attention to improving the quality and efficiency of economic growth; greater emphasis on promoting the transformation of the mode of economic development and economic restructuring; greater emphasis on promoting reform and opening up and independent innovation, enhance the vitality and momentum of economic growth; greater emphasis on improving people’s livelihood and maintain social harmony and stability. Canadian co-ordinate domestic and international focus on the overall situation.
“It’s five more attention will likely be next year’s general guidelines for economic work.” Some economists foresight judgments, Goldman Sachs Gao Hua on the “five more attention” also made a more detailed interpretation, first of all, the first an emphasis that the Government priority is to prevent over-investment, inhibit excess production capacity, improve energy efficiency in industrial output; Secondly, the Government will be in the medium to long term investment and export-led economy by steering and stimulating domestic demand linked. The third emphasis that the Government will increase investment and accelerate the development of strategic research and development of new industries concerted action. The fourth is that the process of urbanization, the Government will actively promote the coordinated development of the region and to strengthen the housing security, improve education, health and safety work. Finally an emphasis that the Government has clearly set out the decision-making process will take into account the external environmental factors.
With the economic fundamentals is closely related to policy objectives, many people think that the future government will adhere to 8% economic growth target, but more people believe that economic work conference, this formulation may be diluted. For the monetary policy objective, prior to the information from the China Banking Regulatory Commission show that the size of next year, additional credits may be 6-7 trillion, broad money growth (M2) target to maintain 17% growth rates. While those from the investment bank’s forecast is slightly higher, “We expect the bank of new loans in 2010 is 7-8 trillion yuan, M2 growth target may be between 17-18%.” Morgan Stanley said.
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