China Financial Daily

Tight monetary policy, bank lending will be dark Ming-chung is divided
The Central Economic Work Conference set the tone of the “relatively loose monetary policy,” and not completely dispel the strong policy of tightening the market expectations.

“Despite setting the tone has not changed, but in 2010 the overall environment facing the country this year will be very different this year, there is no longer possible as the amount of credit days.” Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (601398) Risk management and control headquarters believe that the Department of , the Central Economic Working Conference Report “Managing inflation expectations” and “enhance the relevance and flexibility,” “a good grasp of money and credit growth,” such as the emergence of demand has meant that policy began to change.

May be evidence that the central economic work conference was convened, the central bank and the CBRC in single file out of the grasp of credit increments, as well as a thorough investigation of credit risk warning and action. In the institutions, including JP Morgan Chase, including reading, this has been seen as fine-tuning of monetary policy next year, Ming-chung, a tight dark iron-clad proof.

CITIC Securities (600030) ZHU Yan, said the banking industry researcher, and fine-tuning monetary policy-related, regulatory indicators of banking supervision will be tightened, in this environment, in 2010 the scale of the commercial banks to lend further differentiation. “Big banks, city commercial as well as the successful financing of joint-stock bank credit scale will be further expanded.”

Ming-chung, a tight monetary policy in the dark

Despite the recent Central Economic Work Conference to finally identify the monetary policy unchanged signal. But comparing the 2008 Central Economic Work Conference, full insurance the growth of the keynote, this year added a number of modified vocabulary has already begun for the Government to set the tone for fine-tuning.

“In fact, this has been expected, after all, the economy has begun to pick up, the next phase of economic recovery in addition to continuing a solid foundation, we must adjust the economic structure, to ensure the overall balance.” Of the Central University of Finance and Bank of China (601988) Industry Research Center, Guo Tian Yong said that the regulators will not let the credit ups and downs, but for the banking system will be a moderate risk prevention efforts to strengthen regulation and control.

Prior to this, the first 10 months of this year, up 8.9 trillion yuan to new RMB loans once the market tight next year whether it will lead to a very strict policy tightening.

This fear in these people who seem not unreasonable ICBC, “the first half of the economic rebound is more dependent on the mass of credit support, if the market without a solid foundation, plate the greater the possibility of breeding of the bubble the greater the accumulation of in the banking system, the greater the credit risk, regulators have also been concerned about this issue. ”

This fear, in the central economic work conference has already started to become apparent, despite the 2010 anti-inflation continues to give way to a sustained and stable economic growth, but “management of inflation expectations” have been cited.

To correspond with the central economic work after the end of the central bank said credit growth rate to control the future, the CBRC also informed the various commercial banks to troubleshoot the first 10 months of credit risk.

“It is evident from next year’s monetary policy is basically in the actual implementation will be Akematsu dark tight situation, regulators will be passed on bank deposit reserve ratio and other indicators as well as other regulatory fine-tuning of policy levers.” Guo Tian Yong says.

In this interpretation, the various agencies of commercial banks, new loans for next year is expected to have a reduction in size. China Minsheng Bank (600016) real estate finance division director of marketing for YE Tian Fang said: “In accordance with 2009 loan balance of 40 trillion yuan, in 2010 growth rate of 17% ~ 18%, the size of new loans in 2010 in the 7 trillion yuan. “Morgan Stanley’s forecast is slightly higher in the 7 trillion between ~ 8 trillion yuan.

As for the regulators are likely to use the fine-tuning tools, CITIC Securities analyst ZHU Yan believes that regulatory measures should be the highest priority is the deposit-loan ratio, capital adequacy ratio and other indicators for monitoring the supervision. “Capital Gold and the core liabilities will be an important variable affecting the size of the credit.”

In addition, the adjustment of deposit reserve rate, the interest rate expectations have also began to increase. “Next year the deposit reserve ratio will be 1.5 to 2.5 percentage points of upside, and will take precedence over the interest rate to use.” YE Tian Fang said.

With the Central Economic Work Conference set the tone for continued steady growth and market for China after the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates to judge, the organizations have also cut interest rates next year, China’s efforts, and raising interest rates forecast for the second half of the time. CITIC Securities, said the latest report released in 2010, China’s de facto rate hike is most likely to occur in the second half, the number of 1 ~ 2 times.