interpretation of the disney shanghai suction golden journey: tourists spend about 600 yuan per capita (2)

December 10, 2009

Interpretation of the Disney Shanghai suction Golden Journey: tourists spend about 600 yuan per capita (2)

Interpretation of the Disney Shanghai suction Golden Journey: tourists spend about 600 yuan per capita (b)
“Disney effect”

“Cigarette gold” at the same time, a powerful “Disney effect” has already appeared in Shanghai in various fields.

November 4, announced in Shanghai Disneyland granted to the news of a half-hour, close to Disney land in the Pudong New Area Planning Chuansha town A08-03 block to the auction. Just 15 minutes, this piece can be seen as “Disney concept” of land plots, with regard to 1.19 billion yuan in total, “the final word,” premium rate as high as 264 percent, more than a premium this year, the highest rate in Shanghai, Wang — Plot No. 10, Lane Zhao level. Away from the Disney project, the core area of about 6 km to B03-13A and the concept of land, after 39 bids, eventually closing 49.5 million yuan, a premium rate as high as 427%, equivalent to the floor price of 1.6 yuan / square m.

Chuansha of the property market had been “too expensive wheat flour bread.” Since the news of Disney settled in Chuansha, the Chuansha’s land prices have risen 10 times straight. Just eight months ago, in March this year, the completion of transfer of the new town of Pudong New Area Chuansha A03-12 commercial plots, its floor premium is only 3809.4 yuan / square meter.

Market research firm place to live off of the data, with “Disney concept” of second-hand housing prices, from March to October of this year were up by 30%, the future “Disney concept” of real estate there may be 20% of the rise, the average price in the 15000 ~ 1.6 yuan / square meters.

Land prices, property agitation, the stock market began a “collective carnival.” November 2, in the good news related to the stimulus, the so-called “Disney concept stocks” many individual stocks daily limit, the static price-earnings ratio of individual stocks more than 400 times, the rest of the same individual stocks led the gainers.

And that’s just the dominant side.

“Disney in Shanghai, will drive the 30 billion to 400 million, related to consumption, driving 50000 people are directly employed 8 million people in indirect employment.” Shanghai University of Finance, Professor Ho Kin-man told the “China News Weekly”, which enhance the Shanghai International recognition and overall competitiveness, promote industrial restructuring, are big advantages.

Long been concerned about the development of tourism Ho Kin-man said frankly that, after the completion of a Shanghai Disneyland is expected to add at least annually to Shanghai 3000000-5000000 times of tourists. “In the U.S., per capita consumption of 100 yuan, 6.7 yuan of which is tourism, and entertainment expenses. China now there is no separate statistics, the reality of our spending has been a great tour of the.” Jian-Min said.

November 18, China National Tourism Administration Tourism Promotion and International Cooperation Division Director Liu Kezhi in the 2009 China International Tourism Fair press conference also said that China’s domestic tourist arrivals in 2008 reached 1.712 billion passenger trips and revenue nearly 900 billion yuan .

“By 2015, we will have 30 million passengers, tourism, holiday entertainment needs.” Jian-Min said.

To benefit not only in Shanghai, in fact, the Disney project, off Shanghai, but also affects the whole Yangtze River Delta Tourism nerves. Travel agents say the one hand, Shanghai Disneyland will attract tourists to the Suzhou area, especially the parent-child couples vacation tours, visitors will travel to Shanghai; the other hand, may bring a quiet pattern of changes in the tourism market, long Triangle regional tourism attraction will be further enhanced, and perhaps will become the new domestic travel hot spots.

“In the market, a cheer at the same time, Disney’s opportunities and risks go hand in hand.” Zhao Kangwei resistant to remind.

Shanghai University of Finance, Professor Ho Kin-man said, “the Disney project, were assessed, some experts fear that this will be full-scale invasion of American culture.” In fact, Disney into China, a purely American culture to be completely rooted in the five years of civilization, China, and its cultural compatibility remains to be tested, while the younger generation in China, you can enjoy hi Yang Yang, Gray Wolf, McDull, Mickey Mouse is not the only option.

In 2002, the domestic theme park industry leader OCT “Happy Valley” will have to enter the Shanghai market ideas. “It was heard that Disney to come, there is no immediate access to that Disney was too powerful.” Zhao Kangwei said, “China News Weekly.” The time, “Happy Valley” to enter the Shanghai market to the Zhao Kangwei solution, “when they first concern of course is useful.”

Seven years later, Disney came, just a new extension Songjiang District in Shanghai, “Happy Valley” the territory of the OCT, in the face and the Disney theme parks Tongcheng competition concern.

This time, the “Happy Valley” No retreat. Overseas Chinese Town Group, any Cray CEO and president, said the entry of Disney theme parks will promote the local brands and the whole industry in the development of the market “pie” bigger. It is noteworthy that in 2005 Hong Kong Disneyland opening, with a Hong Kong across the Shenzhen River, “Happy Valley”, tourists Jingbu increase due growth rate of 10.2%, including “Happy Valley”, including Shenzhen Overseas Chinese Town series of theme parks, when the total number of people received 10 million visitors the first time.

In July 2009, the State Council promulgated the “Cultural Industry Promotion Plan”, an unprecedented move should be made to the development of independent intellectual property rights of the theme park to promote the rise of the local theme park.

Thus, Disney in Shanghai’s “absorption of gold” road, will face a tougher market competition, “Mickey Mouse in China, what would become, no doubt full of variables. But in any case, Disney’s enter the theme park industry in China will bring a new round of competition and development, “Zhao Kangwei told,” China News Weekly. ”

Shanghai Disneyland: a goose that lays the golden egg?

To maximize the appreciation of land, the introduction of well-known brands bear fruit the fastest, easiest to open the room for imagination. In particular, in the moment, the entry of international brands is the best theme speculation

Text / Ji Zhi-Gang

Professor Zhang Wuchang of local competition in accordance with the theory of economic competition between different areas of China are mainly reflected in land development. Land development is well run, like the local economy and fiscal revenue, whereas units must ranking behind. If the second and third line in the coastal cities, land development as the plant is mainly reflected the proliferation of industrial boom, then, in a big city like Shanghai, where land sales are the main indicators of economic success. Shanghai first ten months of the land transfer revenues Ultra 80 billion, won the national title, no doubt proved that Shanghai is a city management, land development leader.

To maximize the appreciation of land, the introduction of well-known brands bear fruit the fastest, easiest to open the room for imagination. In particular, in the moment, first-tier cities across China, especially the land the greater the bubble blowing, in the hot money have shown unprecedented enthusiasm for the land case, the entry of international brands is the best theme of speculation. It is reported that in the Disney project approval, following the announcement of Pudong Chuansha town of second-hand housing immediately jumped up 50%. Is not difficult to imagine the region surrounding the land transfer price will also be shot up more than.

Thus, at least in the immediate term, the introduction of Shanghai Disney is successful, not only for the next few years, huge investment in stocks may pull GDP, once again realized the immediate revenue from land sales can be said to have created will be a golden egg goose.

However, the investments are based on the expected return on investment will depend on the realization of the expected implementation. So Disneyland in Shanghai, can be optimistic about all aspects of the final is expected to become a reality?

Disney set up the stage, land-sing

The news of the Disney project, the dust has settled a stock immediately limit-price immediately turn and a half. “Park set up the stage, land-opera”, which may be pushing this project in Shanghai is the real goal. The concept of speculation by Disney, will raise the price of land surrounding the Shanghai municipal government is expected to get huge revenue from land sales, equivalent to Disney’s future of the region driven by a one-time cash earnings. Need to pay the costs, but it was built, but park fees and necessary infrastructure improvements.

According to media reports, the cost to build gardens and some 244 billion yuan, of course, this is only a static estimate, given the current inflation situation, the final expenditures are more than that. Infrastructure also needs a lot of money investment. Hong Kong Disneyland as an example, the Government in infrastructure construction investment and to build gardens in comparable costs. If Shanghai is also the case, then the total investment cost of 500 billion yuan.

This is a very conservative estimate. News of the project approved immediately boost the morale of experts come out, claiming that Disney would pull trillions of yuan in GDP. According to experts, has always been thinking, this prediction does not require proof needed is imagination. As long as the momentum can build and promote land Zhang Sheng, government land sale proceeds be secured, the next thing a later date.

From the operation of the city’s point of view, of course, nothing wrong with this practice. Even if the Chuansha town’s land and house prices have been stir-fried to heaven, but also can not blame the government can only say that investors are too irrational. Is, investors as to-go, the Government has had to Sishou appearance. Has been put into use from the Disneyland of view, the situation is not optimistic about the imagination, especially in Paris and Hong Kong Disney, had become a heavy burden for the local government.

Disney’s success, success does not mean that investors in

Part of the Disneyland is unsuccessful, both the result of the ever-changing consumer demand, but also to bring Disney’s strong brand, experts in business computing results.

Disneyland itself is a brand extension. Mickey Mouse and Donald Duck are initially cartoon image, it can be developed into a major amusement park, is where the Disney out of color, but also it can cause lasting attract children. In 1955, the world’s first Disneyland opened in California dates back half a century of brand accumulation, and 30 years later, with Mickey Mouse and Donald Duck’s strong brand and started into the world.

The Walt Disney Company is a multi-media networks, theme parks and tourist resorts, film and television entertainment and consumer products business, a number of large groups. Disney’s success is the value of brand extension and the excavation of the model. In the theme park business, after half a century of exploration, the Walt Disney Company has established a set of mature business model and a global developer and operator of the five Disney theme park, including in Tokyo, Paris and Hong Kong 3 the United States outside of Disneyland. Shanghai is planning to build a sixth.

Brand the output in a high degree of caution and hold a conservative attitude is a Disneyland commercial development on the one major characteristic. Disneyland large-scale, high investment, large sunk costs are neither ordinary investors can bear, nor the Walt Disney Company that they can bear alone. It is only by the local government for its support, including support in terms of financial investment, but also be able to ensure that large traffic situation, the Walt Disney Company will consider building a new park. This is after more than 50 years of development, the Disneyland theme park so far, only a mere five reasons.

Disney’s caution is justified. As late as 1983, Disney was to establish the first overseas theme park, namely, Tokyo Disneyland, which is Disney’s most successful examples of overseas promotion of the. Tokyo Disneyland opened, the access to the Japanese people very welcome return significantly, in 2001, Disney has built up at sea. Tokyo Disneyland 97% of the tourists came from the Japanese people, this is the key to its success.

Outside the United States and the Disney built Disneyland, they are nothing but the other two is in trouble. Disneyland Paris has performed dismally, opened in 1992 and has been a loss, stay up until 1995 to obtain low-profit, and later plunged into a loss, until 2007 that she losses, or only marginal profit. Hong Kong Disneyland is not the ideal operating conditions, although the full almost every day, but still a loss year after year. According to the Government’s optimistic assessment, to wait until 2014 to losses, not optimistic, then have to continue after a loss.

However, investors do not make money, does not mean that Disney does not make money. Although the construction of Disneyland Park, cautious, but in the commercial negotiations and the value of mining areas, but it is the absolute experts in. Hong Kong Disneyland as an example, in a total investment of 27 billion Hong Kong dollars in Hong Kong, the actual funding about 90%, equity is only 57%, while the Walt Disney Company is only a little money, account for 43% shares of the printing of often tell it as “unequal treaties.” Business Cooperation your situation I would like to, of course, does not matter equality inequality Moreover, the Walt Disney Company’s investment includes a large number of intangible assets, equity ratio should be higher than the proportion of capital contribution. But this kind of investment arrangements but also proved one thing, that is, when the Disney theme park is completed, bear the financial risk is that the real investors, rather than the Walt Disney Company. In addition, the terms of cooperation in accordance with Hong Kong Disneyland, the Hong Kong side, albeit in most of the investment return was only ticket into the park a huge cartoon product sales benefit retained by the Disney Company. It is packed every day Hong Kong Disneyland is still an important reason for a loss. Although the loss of the Hong Kong Government, The Walt Disney Company is Hanlaobaoshou.

Shanghai Disney’s contract details have not yet been disclosed, is unable to determine whether the “unequal treaties.” However, the information has been sent to see, it is likely “copy” of the Hong Kong model. Alleged that Disney’s three Chinese investors in Shanghai – Shanghai Lujiazui, Shanghai Jingwen Investment Co., Ltd. and Shanghai Nanhui District Real Estate Co., Ltd. – Shanghai Disneyland will hold a total of 57% of the shares, the remaining 43% of the compared to Walt Disney Company. Terms of cooperation in Shanghai and Hong Kong are likely similar.

Dare I say it, Disney’s construction costs would be borne mainly by the Chinese side. The three companies are state-owned enterprises in Shanghai are, financing, they naturally did not a problem. However, in the generous terms of the contract signed, and paid a huge amount of capital investment, in the end will be the Shanghai Disneyland will be the goose that lays the golden eggs or a heavy financial burden, at least at present seems still uncertain.

Source from?

The greatest suspense, but also the theme park the most fatal problem is source.

According to a website online poll of more than half of User that it will not go to Shanghai Disneyland. Such arbitrariness stronger, questionnaire design are not the professional investigation of course, was insufficient, but at least shows that Chinese consumers found the Disney theme park have enough passion, need not worry about that after the park opened at least to the idea of passenger flow to play a question mark.

In addition to the United States, Disney has never been a nation-building two Disneyland. Reason is not difficult to understand, the huge investments needed to support long-term sustainability of the huge passenger flow, which would require a large number of theme parks around the dense population, also need the Disney culture as represented by the United States the public recognition, making it an enduring appeal. Tokyo Disneyland’s success is precisely because at the same time have met two conditions. The failure of the Paris Disneyland, but also because the French people have a natural aversion to American culture.

To learn from China, the enthusiasm of American English, the United States popular culture should be no doubt; Shanghai and Jiangsu and Zhejiang area is densely populated with 2000 census figures, the three population of 120 million, with a considerable number of Japan’s population enough to support the passenger traffic at Disneyland. There is nothing to worry about?

Others. Disneyland is a high consumption, and only has a large population is not enough, wealthy enough to need a large number of the population. Disney theme park in Japan, not only high per capita income, and a more even distribution of income, that is, in the Japanese population, consumption levels can afford to Disneyland a lot of people. On the contrary, China’s per capita income is not only relatively low, but also very unevenly distributed that the ability to Disneyland, a large number of high-spending customer base to provide the remaining questions. This is the first.

Second, China has two Disney theme park, will compete with each other. Guangdong Province has the largest number of rich people, they go to Disney, then play the first choice of course, are not going to Shanghai, Hong Kong. Hong Kong Disneyland after the park opened, although the free exercise of the support is still hard going, and now added a Shanghai Disneyland is bound to greatly reduce the brand monopoly power and market pricing, it is likely to fall into Game No One Played, who do not eat saturation dilemma.

Third, the biggest variable, but also because consumer tastes change. The popularity of computers and the Internet has not only dramatically changed the mode of production, but also dramatically changed the entertainment. Today’s children has no longer as keen on outdoor activities. Theme parks, of course there are many novelty gadgets, but the network can also provide these things, and update the odd cheaper, some even for free. Disneyland rely on the kids away from the front of the computer do? Rely on well-known cartoon characters do? Even Disney Channel landed no available, today’s children, how many know that Walt Disney, Mickey Mouse and Donald Duck like to see it? Lost children’s attraction Disneyland peril.

There are so many variables, to the Disney park opened in 2014 when Shanghai is perhaps the end of the day of regional prosperity. By then, even if Disney wants to come, it should not be surprised.

Stir-fry of any asset price, the result would be the future of the excessive overdrafts. The local government has rushed to announce that Disney would bring about 30 million passenger per year, while the area is almost the same Hong Kong Disneyland park opened four years, the total passenger traffic was 10 million. When Disney’s high expectations come to nothing when he was stuck in will not only investors, will include the whole of Shanghai.

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