China Financial Daily

People’s Insurance Department officials: China’s demographic dividend closing a window after 10 years
June 24, the CPPCC National Committee, “the aging of the population impact of the economic and social development research group” to research the topic Ning. Invited to participate in research of human resources and Social Security old-age insurance frankly Zhang Jianming, deputy director of China’s “demographic dividend” after 10 years “off the window period.” Nanjing, such as an aging society in advance to enter the city, will be faced with the increasing number of elderly population, a substantial decline in the number of young people, increased the dependency ratio, rapid increase in labor costs and other issues, need to take effective measures to maintain the urban economy the sustainable development of society.

Reporter: What is a “demographic dividend”?

Zhang Jianming: If a country rapidly declining birth rate, resulting in accelerated aging of the population at the same time, children are rapidly declining dependency ratio, the proportion of working-age population increased, the proportion of elderly population in a relatively high level reached before the formation of a relatively abundant labor resources , raising the burden of light, very favorable to economic development of the “golden age”, population economists call “demographic dividend.” China’s current population age structure in the “demographic dividend” stage, the total annual supply of labor is about 10 million people, a higher proportion of the workforce to ensure economic growth in the demand for labor. Peak due to the aging of the population is yet to come, to lighten the burden of social security expenditure, the faster the accumulation of wealth.

Reporter: You just said that China’s “demographic dividend” 10 years after entering the “closing a window period”, based on what?

Zhang Jianming: Japan is the first realization of the demographic transition in Asia and the country’s economic take-off, “demographic dividend” was also the earliest, some started in the year 1930-1935, ending in 1990-1995, which lasted about 60 years. Other Asian countries including China, South Korea, Singapore, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines and Vietnam, almost 30 years later in Japan after the “demographic dividend”, the current in these countries are in the “bonus” period. World Bank “World Development Report 2007″ shows that China’s youth population reached its peak around 1978, this rate of decline in the maintenance of the window period can be maintained for 40 years, that is, the window period of about 10 years after closure.

Reporter: “demographic dividend” of economic and social development of what impact?

Zhang Jianming: a survey not long ago, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences report, “demographic dividend” created a China miracle. The last 30 years, China has to rely on the world’s leading force of cheap labor, has created a remarkable economic miracle, the work force to contribute to China’s economic growth rate of 26.8 percent. The report also shows that China’s rural surplus labor force is far from so many imagine, by the labor surplus in China is to change the times of labor shortage, this inflection point in the “Eleventh Five-Year” period, the exact time could be in 2009, the change will bring rising wage workers.

Reporter: “demographic dividend” after closing a window, how do we crossed this “Hum”?

Zhang Jianming: In accordance with internationally accepted indicators, for every 10 people in a 60-year-old or older, the country entered an aging society. China has entered the aging society in 1999, and Nanjing 10 years earlier, following Shanghai, Beijing, Tianjin, the first four to enter the aging city. As far as I know, at present, Nanjing, accounting for over 60 years old residence of the 16% of the total population, that is, there is every 6 people in an elderly, far higher than the national average. At the same time, Nanjing elderly population growth rate of 4 percent, an increase of 5 million people each year, far higher than the national average, expected by 2020, Nanjing aging population will reach 1.6 million people, that is, 5 people in an elderly, equivalent to the level of developed countries now. With the scarcity of labor resources, human resources costs will be greatly improved. Therefore, the Nanjing’s economic and social development can no longer follow the traditional model, and to carry out economic restructuring and industrial upgrading, and to reduce the labor-intensive industries to develop software, finance, insurance, creative, modern service industry such as high-end industries, labor is no longer times cheaper to prepare in advance.

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