China Financial Daily

Economists: the current economic situation to be anti-heater
China’s current slow growth in income, income distribution gap between people’s consumption growth rate lead to low domestic demand, driven not appropriate; we want to prevent the economy from a “heater”, we must learn to put their excess output capacity and the money of the country, for Back to resources such as “potential money” – Yesterday, a well-known economist and former deputy director of National Tax Administration to Nanjing to participate in of Taihu Lake Forum” will be the governing preparation and publication of the “economy in 2009 do not,” the impromptu speech. It is understood that from the beginning of July this year, “of Taihu Lake Forum” will be once a month until June next year.

Anti-economic “heater” phenomenon

4000000000000 investment so that China’s economy in the world economy against the backdrop of the crisis remains a certain range of positive growth, but with more than half the investment, economists have begun to worry about the new show.yesterday that the 4000 billion investment in the Central is directly allocated more than one trillion has been allocated more than half of it, the need for local matching funds is about 3 trillion. However, there is a problem here, in local government matching funds may not be available in part because local governments do not like money, some funds may be the lack of gap areas.

In addition the investment structure, the GDP growth rate is now part of the investment in new capacity, this part of the investment in the investment performance during the demand for powerful, but once the investment is completed, may be turned into excess production capacity. For example: For example, in Caofeidian Shougang a new iron and steel companies in the construction process need a lot of cement, steel and energy-saving emission reduction facilities, etc., which are reflected in strong demand, but now the factory has been completed, the smelter point of the steel furnace, but does not have sufficient orders, and steel-making furnaces can not extinguish (put out the quality of an impact on), so now only a day to maintain the heater temperature furnace, smelting iron and steel can not go full steam ahead. So we pull in the investment GDP at the same time and pay attention to adjust the investment structure, to prevent similar “heater” phenomenon.

Difficult to pull the slow income growth of domestic demand

ЭɆ?ﳡid that although China’s current growth rate of retail sales of social consumer goods increased rapidly overall, but the key is not faster growth rate of household consumption, we have policies to encourage consumption, the greater is the supply side to solve the problem, such as fat consumption coupons, and other home appliances to the countryside, but not enough consumer demand point of view – that is, income growth rate is not quick enough, the distribution of income and social disparity. We have always had the problem of inadequate consumption, but because there is a strong capacity to support external demand, it was not apparent contradictions, a large number of foreign trade is shrinking, the need to boost domestic demand, this contradiction has emerged.

Capacity output for “potential money”

Economic downturn in the world, how boost external demand is also a hot topic.lieve that the excess domestic production capacity, a lot of money, it can try to use the output capacity of foreign exchange for “potential money.” For example, we have plenty of capacity, a large number of foreign exchange reserves and the renminbi, and some countries are rich in resources, which is the “potential money”, those countries can not afford their own development, we can try to capacity output and foreign loans, to exchange for these “potential money.” For example, a small country in Africa to build power stations do not have the money, the credit line on more than 800 million yuan of loans to them, and then use their mineral resources as collateral.that like many countries, such as Nigeria is rich in oil resources, but it will sell its oil abroad, but can not afford their own oil refineries, all from abroad can only be re-refined oil into. If we try to help the construction of oil refineries, and then import the oil from them, should be a win-win “transactions.”